Precipitation type is the form precipitation takes when it reaches the ground, such as rain, snow, sleet (ice pellets), freezing rain, or a mix of these. In winter it depends mostly on the temperature of every layer the precipitation falls through on the way down, not only on the temperature at the surface.
Following a snowflake down
Most winter precipitation starts as ice crystals in cold air aloft. If the air stays at or below 32°F (0°C) from cloud base to the ground, the crystals arrive as snow.
If the flakes fall into a layer warmer than freezing, often called a warm layer, they start to melt. How deep and how warm that layer is decides whether they melt partly or completely.
What happens near the ground
Flakes that only partly melt can refreeze in a deep layer of below-freezing air near the surface and land as sleet, pellets of ice that bounce. Flakes that melt completely and then meet only a thin below-freezing layer stay liquid and freeze on contact as freezing rain.
If the air near the ground is above freezing, the result is usually rain, though snow can still reach the ground when it is not too warm. Ice can also be missing from the start: when a cloud is between about 32°F and 16°F (0°C and -9°C), it will likely hold supercooled liquid rather than ice, so whatever falls begins as liquid.
How forecasters judge it
Forecasters read the depth and temperature of the warm and cold layers on a sounding, and which one sits on top. When the air is not saturated they use the wet-bulb temperature, because precipitation falling into dry air cools it by evaporation.
Layer thickness is a fast first guess at type, but Weather Prediction Center guidance notes that thickness methods can miss a very thin warm layer.
What the type alone does not tell you
The ground has a say too. If the ground is warmer than freezing while the air is colder, heat from the ground may keep freezing rain from icing streets.
Type can also change during a storm. Melting pulls heat from the air, and that cooling is strongest where precipitation is heaviest, so a heavy burst can shift rain toward snow.
The freezing level and wet-bulb zero mark where melting begins aloft, and on radar the bright band shows the melting layer itself.
